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Bubble or not?

Stephen Roach vs James Chanos

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"This time it's different"

There's lot of wishful thinking about China.

The reality is that the Chinese economy depends on exports.

Wishful thinking says that Chinese consumers will suddenly change character, become wild-eyed spenders and take up the slack.

Reality: Half of China's economy is devoted to infrastructure projects, a lot of which are either not used or are overkill.

And Chinese consumers are - so far - not big spenders.

So how is this going work again?

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